Election 2024: Latest Global InfoAnalytics poll tips Mahama for victory
The latest poll by Global InfoAnalytics ahead of Ghana’s December 2024 elections has tipped former President and National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer, John Dramani Mahama (JDM), to secure victory.
The data shows Mahama leading with 51.9% of voter support, while his closest contender, the ruling New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), trails with 40.5%.
Other candidates, including Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB), garnered 2.1% and 4.7%, respectively, with 0.7% of votes going to other candidates.
Regional Breakdown of Poll Results
The poll reveals key insights into voter behaviour across the regions: Swing Regions (Greater Accra, Central, Western): JDM: 51.1%, DMB: 39.5%, AKK: 2.0%, NKB: 7.0%, Others: 0.4%.
In the Akan Regions, Bawumia leads with 46.6%, JDM: 44.5%, AKK: 2.6%, NKB: 5.6%, Others: 0.9%. In the Northern Regions, JDM leads with 64.7%, DMB: 33.9%, AKK: 0.7%, NKB: 0.7%. In the Volta and Oti Regions: JDM: 72.7%, DMB: 19.7%, AKK: 2.2%, NKB: 3.3%
The six-week polling average indicates Mahama leads in 13 regions, including the traditionally NPP-aligned Ahafo and Bono regions. Dr. Bawumia leads in three regions.
Independent and First-Time Voters
Among independent voters, Mahama enjoys a significant lead of 63%, followed by Bediako at 17%, Bawumia at 13%, and Kyeremanten at 5%. First-time voters, who represent about 5% of the electorate, favor Mahama with 48%, followed by Bawumia at 39%, Bediako at 8%, and Kyeremanten at 5%.
Key Voter Concerns and Issues
The poll identifies the economy as the dominant issue influencing voter decisions, with 77% of respondents citing it as their primary concern, followed by jobs (65%) and education (52%).
Among voters prioritizing the economy Mahama leads with 55% with Bawumia trailing with 38%. For those concerned about jobs: Mahama: 55% Bawumia: 38%. While for those prioritizing education: Mahama: 49% and Bawumia: 43%.
Economic and Political Sentiment
The poll underscores widespread dissatisfaction with Ghana’s current economic trajectory:
63% of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
55% say their personal economic condition has worsened in the past year, while only 29% report improvements.
Despite a modest recovery in President Akufo-Addo’s approval ratings—from 29% to 35%—his disapproval remains high at 59%, with a net disapproval rating of -24%.
Voter Certainty
An overwhelming 90% of voters have solidified their decisions, with only 4% indicating a likelihood to change their minds.
Outlook
As Ghanaians prepare to head to the polls in less than three weeks, the Global InfoAnalytics poll suggests a challenging path for the NPP, with the NDC’s Mahama poised for a potential victory, driven by economic discontent and strong regional support.
END
