After 14 days of trading in the first Pricing-window for July 2016, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) sampled 25 Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) across the country and found that:
• The market recorded and average reduction of 1% and 0.58% on Petrol and Diesel respectively.
• Eleven (11) OMCs – Shell, Total, Puma Energy, Allied Oil, Agapet Oil, Engen Petroleum, Star Oil, Lucky Oil, Petrosol and Rich Oil; made reductions to the price of Diesel and Petrol.
• Engen Petroleum, Puma Energy, Unity Oil, Goil, and Top Oil are the five (5) top OMCs in terms of prices.
World Market Index
Platts, the benchmark for Petrol and Diesel prices went down by $40.52 per metric tonne and $19.95 per metric tonne respectively, representing 7.9% and 4.6% over the first Pricing window. The average Platts prices for the first Pricing-window was $513.95 and $436.20 per metric tonne for Petrol and Diesel respectively. For the Pricing-window starting 16th July 2016, Platts is reporting $473.43 per metric tonne and $416 per metric tonne for Petrol and Diesel respectively.
Over the first window, North Sea Brent crude averaged $47 per barrel; a $2 decrease from the second-half of June 2016, and the third consecutive fall since reaching a high of $52.51 per barrel in June 2016. Prices are forecast to average $44 per barrel in 2016 and $52 per barrel in 2017.
Local Market Index and Inventory
The Cedi recorded some level of stability against the U.S. Dollar in the first Pricing-window of July 2016, and is expected to remain stable over the next window. Surging fuel stock in the country has pushed floating storage (offshore vessels) to seven month high. The combined stock of Petrol and Diesel (in-tank and offshore) as at 14th July 2016 is over 540million liters – capable meeting a little over 7-weeks of national consumption.
Projections for July 2016 Second-Window
On the back-drop of a comfortable national fuel stock, the falling fuel prices on the world market, and the relative stability in the local currency; the Institute for Energy Security can project a further drop in prices of fuel on the local market between 2.5% on petrol and 1.8% on Diesel in the Second Pricing-window for the month of July 2016. At the close of the new Pricing-window, IES expects consumption of Petrol and Diesel combined to increase by 2.9% over May 2016 figure of 306 million liters for the month of July 2016.
Signed:
GILBERT RICHMOND ROCKSON
Principal Research Analyst, Petroleum Unit – IES
Contacts: 0244871916/0207997227
